16-Nov-2006: The Beautiful Theory
Some dismiss the theories of evolution and cosmology as describing meaningless random events, and so reject it
on that basis. That we are here and evolved due to blind luck is just too difficult to accept. I agree. When
put in those terms it is hard to see that our existence is part of some sort of plan and that there is a future for us. Might as
well eat, drink, and make Mary.
The probability of us having evolved when looked at from
the perspective of the beginning of the universe (when we were only potential) is astronomically small. All of the events
which occurred over billions of years could not have been predicted. However, the undisputable fact is that we are here.
My clumsy sketch shows how probability works.
Imagine a board of pins spaced as in the diagram. Then imagine dropping a small ball so that it lands on the top pin. Where will
it go next? It must fall either to the right or to the left. There is a 50% probability that it will fall to the right and a similar
probability that it will fall to the left. When it hits the pin below (either to the right or to the left of the first pin), there will be
an equal probability that it will then fall either left or right from the second pin. (Think of the "Plinko Game" on The Price
Is Right.) Given that there is always a 50% probability of falling to the left and a 50% probability of falling to
the right as it lands on each pin, the rules of chance tell us that there is a strong probability that half the ball bounces will
be to the left and the other half will be to the right, and so the ball will likely end up in the centre box at the bottom.
But, we also know that it doesn't always end up in the centre box. Sometimes it lands in other boxes. And we
also intuitively know that the further away from the centre that a box is, the less likely it is that the ball will land there.
I have sketched a possible path for the ball. It is similar to flipping a coin. When a coin is flipped there's a 50/50 chance that
it will come up heads. What are the chances of getting heads six times in a row? Actually, the odds are very good because
each new toss has a 50% chance of being heads.
Here's another example. Suppose there is a lottery where 10,000 tickets are printed. Now suppose that
every ticket has been sold and no one person was allowed to have two or more tickets. What are the chances of any
particular person winning the jackpot? One in ten thousand. Very poor odds. Turn it around though and ask, what is
the likelihood that the jackpot will be won by anyone? There is a 100% probability of that happening (barring accidents
and cheating).
Our universe has evolved following the laws of probability. At any point in its history conditions could have made
our eventual existance impossible. Even during the first milisecond a slight change in conditions could have meant that matter could
never emerge, or that the universe could have collapsed upon itself. But, given that conditions at the beginning did
not result in a catastrophe, our universe could put into effect its most powerful tool: time.
I heard one of those literalist fundamentalists once deride evolution by saying the theory says that if you blow
up a gas station, a new gas station would emerge. It says no such thing. It does mean though that if you blow up a billion gas stations a billion
billion times, something interesting will emerge from one of those explosions. And that is the ticket. Our universe is tremendously wasteful.
There are billions of galaxies, many of which are inhospitable to life.
Many others have only a small area that is protected
from the energies and radiation generated at their cores.
Galaxies contain billions of stars each. How many of those stars have solar
systems where the initial conditions for life can develop? And, on how many of those planets were the initial conditions met and the planets
and solar system continued to be hospitable for life for a significant length of time? If sentient life could emerge on one insignificant
planet orbiting around an average indistinguishable star located in the outer regions of a galaxy of billions of stars, and that galaxy is
an average non-special one among billions of others, then it can emerge on other insignificant planets orbiting average stars located in other locations in
our galaxy and in other galaxies.
We know with 100% certainty that it has happened once. And we also know that we are changing as are all life forms sharing our planet. The
last fifty thousand years on this planet are a pin prick compared to the billions of years that life has been changing on our planet. Which means
that present-day humans cannot be the end-all and be-all of creation. We are a tiny step in an unimaginably long history. If, on contemplating the
future, we expect to see humans in their contemporary form ten thousand years from now, a million years from now, a billion...then we are
blind and hopeless fools.
My thought for the day.